Protector Q4 - another strong quarter

Q4 volumes was announced a week ago. 30,5% growth💪. We are impressed again. Our hats off to Stuart, Country manager UK, and his excellent team!

On the claims side we expect a gross claims ratio of 73,4%, (net at 75,7%.) 💪driven by UK and Sweden but also supported by continued high price increases in the Nordics. After a lot of bad luck in Denmark, they will be back to normal, but large losses will occur somewhere else.

Cost ratio will be strong as always💪 but remember that the share-based incentive system will have a negative effect on cost ratio in quarters where the share price is on the rise (and on the contrary when share price is down). We estimate the effect in Q4 to be at 1.0 pp (share price up from 242-285📈), resulting in a cost ratio of 11%. You will probably see a similar effect in Q1 since share price continues up 🙂

Investments will be negatively affected by equities by -145 MNOK. Q4 is the most difficult quarter to estimate equities results as we are far from the annual report when they disclose their investments. So do not be surprised if we (and other analysts) miss out on this estimate. Bonds will be negatively affected by SWAP as interest rates moved north.

The new target price from our side will be communicated in a week or two. Let us remind you we were very early with target prices sized 200NOK (June 2022), 271NOK (May 2023), 292NOK (April 2024) and 343NOK (July 2024). Analysts in Norway have gradually followed 🙂. The question now is, what's next?

Stay tuned.

Disclaimer:
Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)

All the best,

Sverre and David

Hvaler Invest AS

Lillestrøm, Norway

29.01.25