Crayon - it's not one way to Rome (252 kr per share)
It's a merger not a bid: 1 + 1 > 3?
Let's not talk about figures but what creates shareholder value📈
We consider todays "bid" as a proposal for a merger with a cash element included.
At first glance this does not look appealing, but consider the following perspective:
SWON share price has decreased 60% year to date and Crayon is up 60%
An offer on SWON of 18,8 CHF/share was given and rejected a years ago
Microsoft (and others) prefer a few large, rather than many small, partners
Synergies between the two companies are very significant and cost synergies are very easy to take out (value of yearly synergies is equal to present Crayon market cap)
2 competent board members from Crayon and Melissa with team will have the necessary competence and power to implement a mutual strategy (together with many good people from the other side).
We know too little about SWON and we need to meet and learn more before we decide our position. Their size, profitability and solid client base are obviously strong assets, let's learn more. Kristian Spetalen from Artic have "calculated" a potential value at 270 today (cash + shares). You could argue a higher or lower figure but it's a pretty good calculation.
Our recommendation today is DO NOT SELL (we have bought more). It's more than one way to Rome, and we will carefully consider both options in due time before March. We might end with a positive conclusion, but first we look forward to Q4 results (our Crayon expectation is on the aggressive side 🙂)
Now it's time for Sjusøen, cross country skiing and Christmas in winter wonderland (meaning not in Switzerland😉).
Disclaimer: Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)
All the best,
Sverre and David
Hvaler Invest AS
Lillestrøm, 19.12.2024