17,2% growth January 1st including first volumes from France

Our estimated growth in Q4 is 14,4% in local currency (21,9% NOK) driven by strong growth in UK and continued price hikes in Scandinavia.

On the very important January 1st renewal date we expect 17,2% growth in local currency (incl. France) driven by price increases in Scandinavia, strong growth in Sweden and modest growth in UK. 

Our volume guesstimate in France is 235 MNOK (20MEUR) on a full year basis with 2/3 of the volume arriving January 1st assuming a pretty front-loaded public-sector renewal date (almost like in Scandinavia). It means 157MNOK January 1st and then “some” property and motor fleet clients arriving in 2H 2025. This guesstimate is based on previous comments from management stating that “at the moment tender volumes and competitive situation indicates that we might grow faster than we did in UK”. In UK Protector was not ready for a lot of volume in 2016 and hit ratios were very low, but in 2017 the volume was around 250MNOK. We think it’s realistic to move “twice as fast” in France since preparations started earlier, the collected databases are reported to be significant in size and of good quality, and Protectors competence in pricing Public (and commercial) risks are even better, meaning you can be “slightly bolder” in 2025.

The value of Values

Let’s also remind you that “Bold” is 1 of 4 values in Protector (and has been since 2006). I think it’s pretty easy to say it was bold to enter Sweden in 2011, bold to enter Denmark in 2012 and bold to enter UK in 2016 (the most competitive insurance market in the world). Many people from Scandinavia will also state “it’s bold” to enter France. But in Protector bold does not mean “stupid” or “seeking volume alone”. Volume must be profitable (objective nr 3 in Protector – “Profitable growth”), i.e that if prices are too low you should be bold enough to wait for the right opportunity in the market. We will, as an investor, not be disappointed if volume is a lot lower in France than our Guesstimate. We’ll only be disappointed if you don’t “live your values”.

We have earlier compared Protectors amazing organic growth story with this guy:

Photo: Getty Images

Guess what – he’s still running pretty fast 😊

Now heading for Switzerland to discuss SoftwareOne vs Crayon😅 (target price 252). 

Disclaimer:
Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)

All the best,

Sverre and David

Hvaler Invest AS

Lillestrøm, Norway

20.01.25