Protector - New target price: 685

After Q2 with 6% LCY growth and a very strong Combined Ratio at 81.5%, we expect a superstrong Q3 with:

  • growth at 35.9% LCY (29.9% NOK)

  • combined ratio at 78.6%

  • and a decent ROI at 1.0%

This will lead to an EPS at 11.6 NOK(🔥) vs last year at 5.6 NOK 

Our updated estimates include the following key takeaways:

  • Slightly higher growth rate due to the biggest client ever in UK with inception July 1st

  • Currency headwinds (NOK strengthening vs all others) reducing NOK growth and EPS

  • Slightly increased CR due to a softening UK market

  • Slightly higher bond returns due to increased interest rate levels (next 3 years) 

This leads to a new target price at 685 up from 660 since increased bond return and growth is more important than a slightly worse, but still very good, CR. 

Yes, we disagree with “all” other analysts who lower their target price when the share price falls… Maybe we don’t have the same calculators?😆

Ulrik in Nordea is an honorable exception to the statement above👌

 AI vs Protector is noise in our opinion. Why?

  • Protector will, as always, take advantage of new opportunities better than peers when new technology arrives

  • Barriers towards potential disruptors are significant and will take a decade to play out if at all

  • Protectors’ segments are medium to large clients in the public and commercial sectors while potential disrupters will focus on the consumer segment

 

No worries, we have bought more Protector shares on the dip😅💪

Best regards,
David and Sverre

 

Lillestrøm, Norway

15.10.26

Disclaimer:
Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)