Protector on fire 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Historical Q1 and new TP 403 NOK
We have 19,6% LCY growth, a combined ratio at 85,9% and a ROI at 2,4% which leads to an EPS of 9,6!
Vow -
It's all time high
The growth machine will continue
And you will harvest from price increases next 2 years
Volume growth in 2025 ends up at 17,1% in LCY even in a situation where renewal prices will start to decline to more normal levels due to reduced claims inflation and increased competition in some segments.
We also expect April 1st renewal in UK (about 20% of full year volume in Protector), at about 12% growth, which is more modest than last 2 years.
Gross claims ratio🔥 will improve a lot to 73,3% since 1) UK will still have “super profit” due to continued strong renewals above inflation, 2) Auto in Scandinavia will improve a lot, as price increases is finally starting to bite (as we can see from Q3 and Q4 ’24),
3) Winter this year has been very kind to insurers, 4) Workers Comp DK is finally history. Feel free to look deeper into our estimates pr country in the table bellow. You will find UK very strong and Sweden returning to impressive results.
Cost 🔥are exceptionally low compared to peers (as always) but the share-based compensation scheme "kicks in" with about 40 MNOK (1,2 pp added to cost % since share price is up 19% in the quarter). We like it - you deserve it.
Investment results 🔥are, as always, volatile. This time in favor of Protector on the equity side. We know you (Team Dag Marius) love turbulence in the market - now you got it 😅 – continue doing what you always do when "it's blood on the streets" (speaking financially only).
We have a new target price at 403 NOK 🔥
It's not even aggressive since it`s based on a long-term rather conservative growth expectation.
Congratulations to the Protector team - all time high must be celebrated 🍾
Stay tuned,
David and Sverre
Hvaler Invest AS
Lillestrøm, Norway
22.04.25
Disclaimer:
Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)