20,6% growth and combined ratio 85,2%

It cannot be disputed that Protector is THE insurance champion in the Nordics (and probably also world-wide) the last 5-10-15-20 years (you can pick any period you like).

Again, in Q3 you will see 20% profitable growth in a quarter, like you have seen the last 5-10-15-20 years (not every quarter or year of course but CAGR).

Our Q3 estimates and consensus

At first glance this might look like the typical Hvaler and Sverre bull🐂 estimate. But we are very close to Håkon (DNB) on combined ratio (the number 1 finance analyst again in 2024. Congrats!), and we are close to Ulrik (Nordea) in investment result (his strongest area?).

It is also worth noting that we have the exact same underlying combined ratio as last year, when Hans (the weather event, not the deputy CEO😃) hit the combined ratio hard.

Growth is always hard to predict. We estimate 20,6% (13,6% in local currency) mostly driven by price increases along with competitors, Sweden with it’s portfolio issues taken care of, turning to growth again, and continued strong UK growth.

The investment results is driven by strong bond return (3,6%), while equities is volatile as always and negative this quarter (-0,3%).

A small detail (it's not really a detail, but a part of Protectors MOAT that Warren Buffet is talking about) is a cost ratio (exclusive of commissions - which is the only way to look at it) at a historical low level in Q3 (5,5%). We have earlier compared Protectors cost ratio with Usain Bolt now he has beaten his world record again🥇💪 Does Protector hold the world record in "cost ratio among insurance companies"? Of course - it has never been challenged professionally in the last 5-10 years.

Enjoy Q3 results and ask yourself the following question: How do you price a profitable growth compounder with a solid home base in Scandinavia, fast growing in UK and now entering France? Lower than peers, equal to peers or higher than peers? Our target price is 343 which means Protector will be priced in line with peers.... 🙂

Disclaimer: Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)

Best regards,

Sverre and David

Lillestrøm, 22.10.24