Q1 2025 – soft on volume

We expect some revenue growth (6,7%) and reported EBITDA of 13,9% (of gross profit) in Crayon. You will probably see negative growth (-3,0%) and reported EBITDA of 12,4% (of revenue) in SoftwareOne. Q1 is a seasonally weak margin quarter for both companies.

On an annual basis we expect improvements during the year from both companies as illustrated in table below. There are reasons why this is resonnable which we well revert to in a new analyses after Q1.

Other key elements to look for in Q1

In SWON we'll look for evidence on improved adjustment levels (less bullshit earnings) and a solid delivery in present cost program. We'll further look for challenges in Consultancy sector and margin erosion in Marketplace.

In CRAYN we'll look for possible improvements in consultancy sector, VAR margin developement and cost initiatives "pre merger".

In both we hope for 1) some more concrete info about the merger, 2) a statement of "a strategic revue" or "sale of" consultancy business (SWON) and 3) improved, open and prudent Investor communication.

The latter is vital for rebuilding SWONs credibility and, at a later stage, get rid of the very significant pricing discount relative to all peers world-wide. Who knows, The Beast might turn into a Prince in 2026/2027😉

Stay tuned, our full analyses including peer update will be published, probably early June. In the meantime we'll probably do nothing.

David og Sverre

 David and Sverre

Hvaler Invest AS
Lillestrøm, Norway
20.05.25

Disclaimer:
Hvaler Invest is a significant shareholder so you cannot trust us (or perhaps you can?)